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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
oct28weather
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Thursday, October 28th, 2010
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
The first serious dose of winter weather of the season paid a visit to RMNP over the past week.
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Week in Review
On 10/25, a strong polar jet stream and accompanying Pacific storm system brought cold air, strong wind, and moderate snow to the high peaks.
With temperatures dropping near 10 F and wind gusts consistently in the 40-60 mph range near and above treeline, wind chills were -15 to -20 F over a three day period.
As is most often the case when a northwesterly storm track sets up across the mountain ranges of northern CO, modest to heavy snowfall rates and accumulations occurred. The Never Summer was the usual winner in this pattern, with 2 feet of snow accumulation.
Reports from the alpine region in the eastern part of the Park have yet to come in, but sub-alpine measurements across the northern Front Range indicate that 1-1.5 feet of snow may have fell above 10 kft. Over the week, the Estes Valley received about 0.75 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain.
With west-northwesterly cross barrier flow maintaining mountain wave gusts over 50 mph over a 5-day period, significant and sensitive slab formation occurred on the typical lee- and cross-loading terrain features. Snow drifts and pillows likely attained sizeable depths up to 2-3 feet.
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The last week's wind and temp.'s at 11,500'.
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The Weather Forecast- Oct. 28th through Nov. 4th, 2010.
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The Upcoming Week
High pressure will build over the central Rockies between storm systems over the next three days.
During this time, freezing levels are forecast to rocket back up to the highest of elevations, and a bone dry atmosphere will bring plenty of sunshine.
These warm conditions combined with appreciable new snow accumulations should produce descent melting across alpine aspects exposed to the heat of the day. Diurnal freezing cycles are still anticipated on locally colder and deeply inset rock features.
The next wave of weather will eject northeastward out of CA and is forecast to decay as it moves across the northern Rockies late Sat 10/30. Only light snow showers are expected from this system across the high peaks of the Park. Following its passage, the freezing level will drop down to 10-11 kft, and mountain-wave induced northwesterly winds will once again top the 50 mph mark above treeline.
Strong ridging will once again build over the Rockies by Nov 2 for the remainder of the week. During this time, the freezing level will rise to the highest elevations, dry air will move in, and the winds will slacken.
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(Above) Eli at the start of the Smear of Fear on Longs Peak in early Nov. 2003 conditions. It's looking like this could be another 'no-go' year for this infamous smear.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
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The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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