Thursday,  November  5th, 2009

Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
 

All has been quite along the eastern front over the past week.

The Week in Review

Since enduring the early-season snowstorm of a week ago, the atmosphere has mellowed.  With the exception of occasional mountain-wave clouds in the lee of the Divide, skies have been mostly clear. 

Temperatures have steadily warmed, and the winds have trended downward since reaching human-take-off speeds last weekend.

The stronger winds earlier in the week did act to move significant snow around and produce new slabs that will retain their sensitivity for some time. 

The avalanche risk remains elevated in lee- and cross-loaded terrain features where deposition occurred. 

On aspects exposed to the sun and wind, last week’s snow was effectively compacted, scoured, or sublimated away.

The Next Two Weeks

Over the next week, two storm systems are forecast to clip RMNP; one on Sunday (11/8) and another on Thursday (11/12). Neither system is expected to be anything to write home about.

Sunday’s system is forecast to bring a brief period (~1 day) of colder temperatures, some light snow showers, and some wind in its wake.  Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday.

Thursday’s system may provide a better chance for more significant precipitation; however, the southern and central mountains of CO may be the main beneficiaries of this. Alpine temperatures are expected to remain below freezing for a few days following this system.

Wind will likely be the main story for the following weekend (11/14-15), as the polar jet stream rides overhead with a northwest-southeast orientation.

For the following week, the weather pattern is looking pretty benign, but forecasts beyond five days typically come with a noticeably increased amount of uncertainty.  This is particularly true during the spring and fall seasons.

The five-day forecast performance during the month of October gradually degraded but was still decent overall.  The most accurate model forecasts were produced by the European model:  http://www.ecmwf.int/   Daily forecast comparisons between the US and European models can be found here: 

Detailed 7-Day Forecast

NWS Forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak 

The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.  These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time.  In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.

Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links

Weather Observations and Forecasts

The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information.  Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts