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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Nov17Weather
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Thursday, November 17th, 2011
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
A La-Nina-esque storm track ushered in the first serious dose of winter weather of the season.
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Week in Review
Strong and stable northwesterly flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere forced a wicked mountain wave response across and east of the Divide along the Front Range, where winds above 12 kft topped 100 mph.
Embedded weather disturbances produced widespread mountain snows, although accumulations fell short of forecasted amounts owing greatly to reduced moisture levels.
The Bear Lake snow pillow measured 8 new inches of snow over the weekend, bringing the total depth on the ground to 18 inches.
The long-lived gales scoured exposed slopes and ridges, and deposited wind blown snow in steep, protected terrain features east of the Divide.
A seasonably thin snowpack combined with colder atmospheric temperatures continued to transform ground-based crystals into facets.
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The Madden - Julian Oscillation patterns and their likely affect on the upcoming weather patterns.
Click on image to enlarge.
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 The east face of Longs Peak is currently mostly devoid of snow due to the hurricane force winds that have raked the high peaks this last week and continue to remove any loose material in their wake.
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The Upcoming Week
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has remained active and is forecast to enhance tropical convection over the western hemisphere (stage 1) over the next week.
Composite analysis of historical events during this stage indicate a higher probability for a wetter and colder than average weather pattern across the western US states, including CO.
Numerical models are currently in line with this statistical signal, and are forecasting another cold and wet weather pattern across much of the western US over the upcoming weekend.
Current guidance indicates 0.5 – 1.0 inches of liquid equivalence over the next 5 days, along with plenty of wind. The favorable westerly wind direction for mountain wave accelerations will persist through Saturday (11/19), but directions will shift from the southwest on Sunday with lower speeds.
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The alpine ice conditions on Antisana (18,875') were ideal in late October when we made two ascents of this peak as well as the adjacent Cotopaxi (19,347'). Fresh snow in mid-October combined with a multi-week spell of clear nights and melt-freeze conditions brought many potential routes into great ice shape.
We'll be returning to Ecuador in early December if you're interested in joining and qualified for potential ascents of Antisana and Chimborazo (20,565'). Contact us:
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
if interested and check-out the expedition page here.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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