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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
may4weather
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Wednesday, May 4th, 2011
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
The weather conditions across RMNP continued the slow transition into spring over the past week.
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Week in Review
While the snowfall activity subsided compared to prior weeks, the weather remained cool, cloudy, and windy at times near and above treeline. Stormy weather on 4/29 – 5/1 produced about 0.25 - 0.5” of snow water equivalent near Bear Lake.
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The windy post-frontal environment cranked alpine winds up near 70 mph on 4/30, with hard slab and sastrugi observed across some of the higher and open alpine locations near the Park. Other steep and protected lee-side terrain features received accumulations that were much less wind affected.
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A quite noticeable difference in temperature above and below treeline has evolved over recent weeks of our warming spring season, particularly during the afternoon hours. This has led to convectively unstable conditions during stormy periods, as evidenced by an increase in the amounts of rimed precipitation.
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The particularly cool and windy conditions across the alpine, owing greatly to the frequent passage of waves of energy streaming in from the Pacific Northwest, have also maintained a winter-like snowpack abnormally late into the spring season.
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A graphed summary of the last week's weather weather patterns and snow depths across RMNP.
Realize that these are mostly trailhead elevation snow depths and that on the Front Range, travelling one or two miles to the west will quickly bring one into zones where these snowfall totals are four or five times greater on the average.
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The weather forecast for May 5th-12th , 2011 over the skies of RMNP, Colorado with more snow forecast for the end of this week.
Mike Arnold checking-out the detaching cornice (30' long x 20' deep) on May 2nd, almost completely severed from the upper right (east) entrance to the Dragontail Couloir - climbers and skiers beware!
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The Upcoming Week
After the last in a series of waves of disturbed weather clears out of the region on 5/5, a period of warming will occur over RMNP through 5/9. During this time, mostly cloud-free skies and above freezing temperatures will conspire to rapidly warm snowy aspects exposed to the sun.
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The risk for large cornice collapses and shedding of the recently deposited layers in snowpack, particularly in areas with exposed rock, will be high.
The next storm system is forecast to bring wintery weather back to the high country on 5/10-11.
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Current computer-model guidance indicates the potential for a juicy dump, with 1.0-1.5 inches of snow water equivalent predicted to fall.
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While this is too far out in forecast land to trust wholeheartedly, this situation bears watching given the recent consistency across different forecast runs.
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The Dragontail and adjoining couloirs with more snow and wind affect on May 3rd, 2011. There's at least another month or two of great skiing conditions ahead in RMNP- time to wax the boards!
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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A quite noticeable difference in temperature above and below treeline has evolved over recent weeks of our warming spring season, particularly during the afternoon hours. This has led to convectively unstable conditions during stormy periods, as evidenced by an increase in the amounts of rimed precipitation.
The particularly cool and windy conditions across the alpine, owing greatly to the frequent passage of waves of energy streaming in from the Pacific Northwest, have also maintained a winter-like snowpack abnormally late into the spring season.
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