The
weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain
National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional
meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
march 10 weather
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Thursday, March 11th,
2010
Rocky
Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
A
mixed bag of winter and spring-like
weather conditions
continued across the high country of RMNP over the past week.
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The Week in Review
During
the month of March, large-scale high
and low pressure
anomalies have developed and persisted over the central Pacific Ocean
and western US respectively.
This
pattern has forced persistent
storminess along the
central and southern US
coast, with waves of storminess occasionally propagating eastward over
the
central Rockies.
Two
periods of storminess occurred during
the past week over
RMNP; one on 3/5 and another on 3/8-3/10.
About
9 inches of new snow accumulated at Bear
Lake
during the first system, and the second system produced about 6 inches
of
fresh, as observed by Eli on the east-facing slopes of Flattop on 3/9.
Convectively
driven upslope snows also
occurred east of the
Divide on 3/10, but radar and snow pillow observations indicated only
light
amounts of new snow across the higher terrain of RMNP.
The
windiest conditions over the past week
occurred with the
new snow on 3/5 from the northwest in the post-frontal environment,
which
produced widespread drifts and slabs across elevations above 9 kft on
lee and
cross-loaded terrain features.
Over
the
weekend and between storm systems, strong
solar heating and nearly non existent winds allowed the near-surface
layers of
sunny, lower-elevation snow slopes to absorb a significant amount of
heat.
With the subsequent
stormy period,
these
aspects developed crusts. |
Click
on weather chart to
enlarge.
Mike Arnold checking out the 50cm crown from a soft slab that released
naturally on the evening of March 5th above Emerald Lake in the Tyndall
Gorge of RMNP.
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The Upcoming Week
A
few scattered convective snow showers will
linger on 3/11,
before ridging builds back over the area on 3/12-3/13.
With
the ridge axis moving over on Saturday
3/13, dry and calm conditions will make for a perfect day for venturing
to the
highest of elevations in the Park.
The
next storm system moves across the Four Corners
region on Sun 3/14, which is
usually a favorable position
for significant upslope snows in RMNP. However,
there is still a large degree of uncertainty associated with the track
of this
system in the forecast models.
Given
its tight circulation, a more southern
track would
keep RMNP completely void of new precipitation. And,
with the jet-stream level winds forecast to be
strongest on the
west side of the circulation, a more southern track is more probable.
Ridging will build back
over the area on
3/15 –
3/17, bringing with it more spring-like conditions: strong
solar
radiation, warming temperatures,
clear skies, and low wind speeds.
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The forecast for new snow looks good and no doubt we'll be out skiing
most days in the wilds of RMNP, Colorado during these best months for
backcountry sliding.
As the canyons of Boulder dry out in the upcoming weeks, we'll start our Rock Programs at the end of March at these warmer elevations.
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Detailed
7-Day
Forecast
The
link above will take you to the National Weather Service
forecast for the
12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.
These
forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and
are
updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local
time.
In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for
other
locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the
terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself
Weather Forecast
Links
The
link above provides a list
of web links to various sites
containing a variety of meteorological data and information.
Collectively,
these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather
conditions, as
well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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