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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
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Thursday, June 2nd, 2011
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
Summer made its subtle presence felt across the high peaks of RMNP over the past week.
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Week in Review
Active westerly wave activity continued to impact the western states of the US, which brought periods of cool, wet, and windy conditions to the western mountain ranges.
One of these unseasonably strong westerly waves affected RMNP on 5/29-30. While an over zealous precipitation forecast never verified, the wind forecast did (as usual). Wind gusts topped 70 mph above 12 kft on 5/30 thanks to lee-side mountain wave accelerations in the post-frontal, stable northwesterly flow.
Warm late spring weather made its presence felt both before and after the weekend storm system. This pushed afternoon temperatures into the 40’s F at 12 kft, began to unlock water from the very fat alpine snowpack, and peeled away thin alpine ice smears.
Signals of the impending meltdown have begun to appear in local river-gauge data, where flows have doubled their values of a week ago. However, these flows are still below the 8-year average for this time of the year thanks to the recent cool weather pattern slowing the thaw.
This melting delay combined with hefty winter and spring snowfalls has maintained the snowpack water content near peak seasonal levels nearly a month later than they typically occur. This has resulted in sub-alpine/alpine snow water contents that are currently 2.5 -3.0 times greater than climatology for this time of the year.
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A graphed summary of the last week's weather weather patterns across RMNP.
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Laura Somenzi making it look easy on a ClimbingLife Guides rock outing in Boulder Canyon, CO.
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The Upcoming Week
Westerly wave activity will continue to impact the west coast. Different from past weeks, the forecast over the next week has these waves ejecting northeastward farther to the west.
This will keep RMNP predominantly under warmer conditions, with only brief periods of cooler conditions clipping the area as each system ejects northeastward. Pre-frontal conditions ahead of each system will produce increased southwesterly winds and mid- and high-level cloudiness, but little in the way of precipitation.
With temperatures near 10 kft expected to spend most of the next week above the freezing mark, significant melting and wet-snow/cornice instability is expected. Overnight or very early morning starts will likely be required for the most efficient as well as the safest travel on steeper snow-covered terrain.
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Jerry Allen enjoying a lead on the Dome during an AMGA Single Pitch Instructor Course in Boulder Canyon, CO.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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