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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
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Thursday, June 30th, 2011
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
The gradual shift to a more typical summer weather pattern continued over this past week in RMNP.
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Week in Review
Unseasonably strong westerly wave activity continued over the northwestern US states over the past two weeks, which brought periods of disturbed weather to the Park.
A stalled front and westerly jet were draped across CO on June 17-20. Afternoon convective responses produced cloudy and precipitating skies, with snow accumulations across the alpine zone.
The warmest alpine temperatures of this early summer season were observed over this last week (6/22-29), which were only briefly interrupted by the passage of a weaker low-pressure wave on 6/26. Daytime highs were in the mid to upper 50’s F and overnight lows were above 45 F on exposed higher elevation terrain near 12 kft.
Vertically integrated moisture levels remained mostly below 0.7 cm over this past week, which limited t-storm development. On 6/29, moisture surged ahead of the next westerly wave moving eastward from CA, which provided the fuel needed for afternoon thunderstorm development.
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A graphed summary of the last week's weather weather patterns and river flows across RMNP.
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The weather forecast for June 30- July 7th , 2011 over the skies of RMNP, Colorado. It looks like the holiday weekend could be filled with afternoon thunderstorm activity.
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The Upcoming Week
Over the next week, the westerly storm track will retreat northward over Canada and the lower atmosphere will heat up over the inter-mountain west. In response, a deep anticyclone will develop over the Four Corners region, signaling the beginning of the monsoon season for the US Rockies.
By the weekend, moist, unstable air will begin to stream over the Park, creating an environment conducive to thunderstorm development, particularly during the afternoon hours. This pattern is forecast to moisten up enough by mid week to potentially produce heavier rains.
One last strong westerly wave will track across northern CO on 6/30, before the monsoon pattern sets up. Thunderstorms will fire along the passing frontal zone during the afternoon hours. Winds will also increase from the southwest during the day, with mountain-wave enhanced westerly flow setting up overnight into Friday morning behind the front.
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Mike Arnold on a rare descent of the south face of Mount Chapin (12,438') on June 23rd, 2011. Fall River Road lies at the base of this couloir- the avalanche debris cover the road.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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