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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
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Thursday, July 28th, 2011
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
The game of dodging thunderstorms played out over the past week across the hills of RMNP.
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Week in Review
While there are many meteorological factors that influence the development and intensity of thunderstorm across RMNP during the summer season, moisture availability usually plays a very dominant role.
When using integrated water vapor values at 12 kft as a proxy for low- and mid-level moisture availability, some general characteristics emerge about the thunderstorm patterns over RMNP alpine.
The coveted and rare thunderstorm-free days that are so desired for high, long, and committing objectives like the Diamond on Longs Peak are typically associated with dry air that streams in from drier source regions along the west coast during the summer.
These dry days are associated with integrated water vapor values less than 0.75 cm at 12 kft. July 23-24 of this last week are two such examples of this.
In contrast, the energetic and rain-soaking storms that we’ve already often experienced during the current monsoon season are typically associated with integrated water vapor values greater than 1.25 cm.
These moist days (7/20 and 7/26 of this last week) typically make for brief or long, suffer-filled outings in the alpine.
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Eli bouldering at the beloved mushroom boulders at 12,200' along the Ute Trail on Trail Ridge - July 23rd, 2011.
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Thunderstorm activity and rainfall amounts in Estes Park from July 20th through July 27th, 2011.
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The Upcoming Week
Compared to the last couple of days (7/26-27), moisture levels over the next three days will trend downward.
Afternoon thunderstorms are still in the forecast during the afternoon, but coverage and intensity will be reduced. Saturday (7/30) currently appears to be the best day, with minimal to no convective-generated precipitation in the forecast.
Moisture will once again bump up to energetic convective levels on Sunday though Wednesday (7/31 – 8/3), which will produce dicey (risky) weather conditions for alpine excursions.
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The weather forecast for the upcoming weekend which looks to be best on Friday and Saturday for going big in the alpine world.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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