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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
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Thursday, July 15th, 2010
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
The warmest temperatures of the season occurred over the past couple of days, with the thermometer hitting 65 F near treeline.
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The Week in Review
Vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) values peaked in the 1.0-1.2 cm range over the higher terrain during the late afternoon hours, owing to the local mountain-valley circulation transporting moisture upslope from the lower elevations.
These moisture levels, once reached and condensed, produced increased amounts of heat release to form deep unstable cumulus clouds (with shower and lightening by-products) during the afternoon hours.
While cookbook logic is often a recipe for disaster in the non-linear world of weather, generalized behavioral thresholds can sometimes help hedge the odds for planning activities around the weather.
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Above- IWV values below 0.7/0.6 cm near treeline during summer afternoons are typically associated with thunderstorm-free skies.
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The quickly drying east face of Longs Peak on July 12th, 2010.
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The Upcoming Week
A wave in the westerlies moving across the northern tier of states will usher in a shot of drier air from the northwest on Thu and Fri (7/15-16). This should remove the threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and make for a favorable weather window for attempting more committing and exposed routes.
Moisture will once again be on the increase across the Park by the weekend, as the large seasonal anticyclone over the southwest begins to transport monsoonal juice northward into Utah and then eastward into Colorado.
While no significant widespread precipitation and storminess is currently forecast by the models for the Park over the weekend, moisture levels may trend high enough to allow for isolated areas of deeper convection to develop with associated showers and cracks of thunder during the afternoon. This pattern is forecast to continue into the early part of next week.
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Weather pattern predictions for the upcoming July 17-18 weekend in the western U.S.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
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The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.
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