The weekly weather
forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National
Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional
meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Jan6 Weather
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Wednesday, January 6th,
2010
Rocky
Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
Seasonably
cold and windy conditions characterized the
weather in the mountains of RMNP over the past week.
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The Week in Review
A
northwesterly storm track guided cold but relatively dry
weather disturbances across the region.
This
pattern has been rather unusual given the moderate El-Nino conditions
that
currently exist in the tropical Pacific.
The
current position of the amplified western-US ridge of
high pressure is farther west than last week’s forecast
position.
This westward shift
allowed more arctic air
to surge southward along the eastern flanks of the Rockies
on January 6th.
Snow
accumulations over the past week were mostly
light, with about a total of 6 inches of settled new snow (or ~1 inch
of snow
water equivalence) measured at the Bear
Lake
snow pillow.
Snowpack depths remain under 3 feet (1
meter), which continues to keep depth-hoar instability a significant
concern in
the backcountry.
Although
new snowfall loads over the past week were small, persistent
northwesterly winds have continued to produce larger loads of fresh,
sensitive
slab and drifts on top of an already unstable snowpack.
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Last week's weather events nearby RMNP.
click
charts
and photo to enlarge
Lumpy Ridge mostly snow free on Jan. 5th, 2010.
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Snow depths in the
Central Rockies of Colorado through early January, 2010.
Shallow snow makes for an often higher avalanche danger due to the
depth hoar (DH) layers on the ground being closer to the surface and
thus easier to trigger. Some recent avalanches in the Front
Range have been releasing on this DH layer, resulting in the
entire snowpack sliding - if you can see the ground as the base of a
recent slab avalanche , then DH is the likely
failure layer. Check-out the recent CAIC report here.
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The Upcoming Week
The
western-US ridge will expand eastward over the next five
days.
This will produce
mostly dry
conditions over the region, with less than 0.1 inches precipitation
(water
equivalence) forecast through Monday, January 11th.
With
northern CO positioned east of the ridge axis,
northwesterly flow near mountain top will persist at moderate to strong
levels.
Temperatures will
rebound by the
weekend and through early next week, with daytime highs in the 20s near
treeline.
The
ridge is forecast to break down by Tuesday, January 12th, as
lower-latitude energy streams in across the southwestern tier of states
from
the Pacific
Ocean – which
would be more
characteristic of an El-Nino teleconnection pattern. This
will bring the next chance for
precipitation to CO on Wednesday, Jan 13.
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5-day
Precipitation Forecast for the Western United States.
Click on image to enlarge
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Detailed
7-Day
Forecast
The
link above will take you to the National Weather Service
forecast for the
12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.
These
forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and
are
updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local
time.
In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for
other
locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the
terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself
Weather Forecast
Links
The
link above provides a list
of web links to various sites
containing a variety of meteorological data and information.
Collectively,
these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather
conditions, as
well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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