The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Thursday, January 28th, 2010
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
An El-Nino-like storm track pattern continued across the Pacific Ocean and western US over the past week. Strong waves of winter weather were amplified and guided toward the US west coast by an enhanced Pacific jet stream.
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The Week in Review
As is often the case with Pacific storm tracks influenced by El-Nino, storm energy was guided in two different directions upon reaching the US coast. The southern track was more dominant and energetic, and was positioned across CA, AZ and NM.
In CO, the San Juan were the big snowfall winners (with up to 5” of SWE over the past week), owing to their southern position and favorable orographic exposure to southern storm tracks. With the recent north-south amplification of weather disturbances along the southern track, the mountains of RMNP have begun to receive at least some new snowfall.
Two weather systems affected RMNP over the past week; the first on Sat Jan 23 – Sunday Jan. 24th and the second on Wednesday, Jan. 27th.
The weekend system dropped a few inches of orographically-induced snow and strong winds in the post-frontal environment. Significant and widespread scouring, snow-transport, and drifting occurred with this system, with hourly-averaged winds near treeline pegged at 50 mph for a 12 hour period (measured by the Estes Park wind profiling radar).
Wednesday’s system produced 0.1 - 0.2 inches of SWE (~1-3” snow) from the Estes Valley up to Bear Lake. Another couple of inches of additional snow may have fallen near and above treeline due to orographic enhancement. The good news is that winds remained near or below 20 mph during the event.
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Last week's weather events in the Pacific Ocean.
click charts and photos to enlarge
Wind speeds near the Continental Divide last week.
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The Upcoming Week
Enhanced tropical convection, associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation and El-Nino, is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next week. With this, the overall storm-track pattern across the Pacific and the US will remain similar to that of the past week.
RMNP will remain between storm systems through Sat Jan. 30th. During that time, wind speeds are expected to remain low, and temperatures will remain steady or slightly warm. This will produce favorable weather conditions for sampling the recent snowfall.
The next weather system will arrive on Sunday, Jan. 31st. Another round of light snowfall accumulations are currently forecast, with low wind speeds (<= 20 mph) from the southwest through west near treeline.
The next chance for precipitation comes on Wednesday, Feb. 3rd. At this time, only weak forcing is forecast, which will once again limit the new snowfall potential.
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Kicking steps up a great powder run (37 degrees steep) with no wind on Jan. 28th, in the Dead Elk Couloir, RMNP.
This was part of a ClimbingLife Guides, Level 1 Avalanche Refresher Course. Click here for more information on these hands-on, field-based seminars.
We found LOW to MODERATE Avalanche Danger in this particular piece of terrain on this day, despite 10" of powder on the surface in spots, the underlaying layers were pencil density slabs and the surface snow had no cohesion - just sweet powder skiing!
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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