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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
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Wednesday, January 25th, 2012
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
The hills of RMNP experienced its snowiest week of the 2011/2012 winter season, and more snow for the upcoming week is in the forecast.
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Week in Review
Moist Pacific storm energy made landfall across the northwestern US and translated southeastward across CO and RMNP on a northwesterly storm track.
While absent for almost all of December 2011 and the first half of January 2012, orographically enhanced snows returned to locations west and immediately east of the Divide. Sub-alpine snow pillows measured 2.0 and 1.5 inches of liquid equivalence on the western and eastern sides of the Divide, respectively.
Strong winds, with mountain-wave induced accelerations east of the Divide, scoured and transported snow from the alpine zone into the sub-alpine zone just below treeline. On 01/22, participants in the ClimbingLife Guides (CLG) AIARE Level 1 Avalanche Course observed over two feet of new snow above Dream Lake.
The strong westerly-component winds also transformed the new snow into slab on unprotected N-E-S leeward aspects. Significant strong (new slab) over weak (old, facetted snow) layering produced an unstable and reactive snowpack, as verified by the multitude of slab releases that were induced by CLG using ski cuts.
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Last week's snow and wind event stats for Rocky Mountain National Park, CO.
Click on image to enlarge.
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Any easy ski cut of a propagating 40cm soft slab at the entrance to the Leftist in the Terrain Park, east ridge of Hallet Peak in RMNP on 1/22/12 during an AIARE Level 1 Avalanche Course. Sensitive slabs are prevalent across this treeline landscape after a foot of new snow and strong winds have been loading and energizing slabs in this biggest storm of the year yet in RMNP.
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The Upcoming Week
The recent northwesterly storm track will persist for a few more days, with storm passages forecast for 1/27 and 1/31. Up to 0.6 inch of snow water equivalent is forecast to fall with the earlier system and less than 0.2 inch with the later system.
Winds will continue to be an issue, as stable northwesterly flow will favor mountain-wave development east of the Divide, particularly following frontal passage.
Snow transport and deposition is expected in steep leeward terrain features and just below the alpine/treeline interface. Additional slab development will produce increasing loads on what is already a very weak base layer.
A higher degree of uncertainty exists in the forecast beyond 1/31. Amplification of the eastern Pacific ridge is anticipated; however the longitudinal position has varied across recent forecast runs. An eastward shift (the current forecast trend) would result in drier and warmer conditions for the Park.
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Forecast Accumulated Precipitation in the next week- the potential for another foot of snow is possible while the Cascades look to be receiving much, much more.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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