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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
jan19th_weather
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Wednesday, January 19th, 2011
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
Another week of wintery weather increased an already above average snowpack across RMNP.
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Week in Review
Since the end of December, the eastward extent of the East Asian Jet has shifted position from west to east of the International Date Line.
This shift was associated with the amplification of a strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific off the coast of CA, which effectively guided Pacific storm energy into the Pacific Northwest.
Northern CO was a direct beneficiary of the wintery barrage, as the PacNW storms continued on a southeastward trek along the eastern flanks of the CA ridge. Sub-alpine locations around the Park received between 1-2 inches of new SWE (snow water equivalent).
However, very strong northwesterly winds across the alpine transported significant amounts of snow, which deeply deposited in favorable loading zones both above and just below treeline in the lee of the Divide.
With widespread wind gusts in the 60-80 mph range across of the alpine during the snow event on Jan 17, the formation of thick and reactive wind slab prompted the CAIC to issue an avalanche warning for the area.
Another round of new snow on Jan 19, maintained the elevated avalanche risk, which extended the warning across a 3-day period, despite decreasing winds.
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A graphed summary of the last week's weather systems and accumulated snow/water at Bear Lake.
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The Weather Forecast- Jan. 20-27, 2011.
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The Upcoming Week
While the winds and snow have temporarily subsided, more energy is forecast to stream across RMNP from the northwest over the next week.
Heading into the weekend, snow and wind are forecast to increase on Friday and Saturday, with upwards of 0.5 - 0.75 inches of new SWE in the forecast. The new snow and northwesterly wind will likely maintain the currently high avalanche danger on slopes with any east-facing aspect.
While forecast details are still uncertain, the larger-scale pattern may provide two more opportunities for wintery weather on Monday (1/24) and Wednesday (1/26).
A small eastward shift in the west-coast ridge would put the kibosh on this storminess, while a small westward shift would produce colder and snowier conditions.
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Andy Fritz checking gravity in the Terrain Park, RMNP, CO.
Photo courtesy of Tom Armento.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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