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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
feb15weather
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Wednesday, February 15th, 2012
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
A change in the storm track brought more new snow to RMNP over the past week. A northwesterly storm track is forecast to persist and provide additional opportunities for new snow over the upcoming week.
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Week in Review
The breakdown of last week’s storm-blocking pattern was accompanied by a westward shift in the longitudinal position of this year’s persistent west-coast ridge.
Mean cyclonic flow developed downstream of the ridge and guided higher-frequency storm energy southeastward across the western states.
After making landfall along the west coast, an environment favorable for wave instability forced storm systems to rapidly spin up and track farther south than forecast.
For RMNP, the southward displaced northwesterly storm track resulted in less precipitation and wind than what had been advertised by weather-forecast models.
However, all was not lost on the precipitation front. New snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements across the lower sub-alpine zone still made it to the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range for the week. On leeward aspects just below the alpine/treeline interface, greater accumulations occurred due to drifting and deposition.
The southward displaced track also kept wind speeds at a relative minimum for many days. With the exception of isolated areas, the new snow exhibited only minimal cohesion and was absent of widespread reactive slabs below 11k. At higher elevations, wind speeds were high enough to produce some reactive slabs up to 60cm thick that released naturally in locations such as the Tyndall Glacier.
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Wind speeds have stayed mostly low the last week so minimal wind transport or energizing of the surface has occurred below the 11k elevations. Stripping of the snowpack at the higher elevations continues with this low density winter snow and the west face of Longs and Boulderfield appear mostly dry at the moment.
Click on image to enlarge.
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Dave Ryan enjoying his return to the backcountry of RMNP with Eli Helmuth in the Dead Elk Couloir on Flattop Mountain. We had another big week of fresh snow along with a return of the wind that has thus far produced limited slabs, primarily in pockets at the higher elevations in Rocky Mountain National Park in areas such as the Tyndall and Andrews Glaciers, and Lambslide Couloir.
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The Upcoming Week
More of the same is in the forecast for much of the upcoming week, as the southward displaced northwesterly storm track persists.
The greatest snowfall accumulation potential will come with the late-Sun/Mon (2/19-20) system, and additional accumulations will follow on 2/21-22 owing mostly to orographic forcing.
Totals for the week have the potential of reaching 1.5 inches of SWE, with greater accumulations (by a factor of 2) in favored deposition zones (e.g., below the alpine/treeline interface). Colder temperatures accompanying the new snow will produce higher snow-to-water ratios.
Wind speeds will remain on the low end of the scale by RMNP standards through Sat 2/18. The new snow on 2/19-20 will fall under southwesterly winds that are currently forecast to be less than 35 mph at 10 kft.
However, stronger northwesterly flow is forecast to develop behind the storm system on Tue (2/21) and particularly on Wed (2/22). Leeward deposition and new wind slab development involving the new snow can be expected during this time on leeward N-E-S aspects.
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Forecast Accumulated Precipitation in the next week- the potential for another foot of snow in RMNP is very likely !
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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