The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
| Thursday, February 11th, 2010
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
An El-Nino induced storm track continued across the western US over the past week.
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The Week in Review
Storms moving across the Pacific Ocean traveled along one of two corridors upon reaching the west coast of North America.
While RMNP remained geographically in the middle of this split track, some light winter weather returned as wave energy and moisture clipped the region from both tracks.
Two periods of disturbed weather brought a total of about 0.3 inches of snow water to Bear Lake, with greater amounts above the lake closer to the Divide.
Winds were light during each period of new snow, but returned to strong (> 50 mph on Feb. 4th) and moderate levels (30-40 mph on Feb. 9th and 10th) in the post-frontal environment following the passage of each system.
New soft slabs formed on favorable lee and cross-loaded aspects during these windy periods.
The snowpack water content and depth remains below the seasonal average, with both the west and east sides of the Park currently around 70-75% of average.
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Last week's weather events in the Pacific Ocean High over Utah that played a part in diverting moisture around Colorado, once again.
click charts and photos to enlarge
Snow and water totals in RMNP, Oct.-Feb., 2010.
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The Upcoming Week
With organized tropical convection forecast to geographically persist over the central Pacific Ocean, the mean split-flow storm track pattern is expected to persist.
However, both a westward shift in the overall storm track pattern and a more active northern branch are expected over the next week.
While this westward shift will be subtle (5-10 degrees of longitude), it should be enough to allow northern-branch weather disturbances to more directly impact RMNP.
Orographically-induced snows will begin on Thursday, Feb. 11th and will continue through Sunday Feb. 14th, which will likely be enhanced by a favorable jet-stream position on Saturday and Sunday.
The new snow will come at a price though, with moderate to strong winds expected under deep and stable northwesterly flow.
Expect the avalanche risk to increase during this time, with the wind working the new snow into fresh slab on north through southwest facing aspects.
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Taking the time to do a couple of test profiles on the beginning 35 degree choke of the Dead Elk Couloir.
Overall, we found relatively cohesive snow with strong enough bonds to support strong over weak layering on this well-supported slope.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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