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The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
dec9thweather
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Thursday, December 9th, 2010
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
A shift in the storm track across the western US kept the most active winter weather well west of RMNP.
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Week in Review
Over the past week, a large anticyclonic circulation strengthened over the central Pacific and the west-coast ridge of high pressure migrated eastward over the central Rockies.
A resulting region of low pressure and disturbed winter weather developed along the US west coast, leaving RMNP mostly high and dry, with the exception of a couple of weak impulses ejecting eastward from the western battle field.
The second impulse produced a round of new snowfall that added another 0.3 inches of liquid equivalence and 5 (3) inches of new (settled) snow to the snowpack at Bear Lake. The Never Summer Range fared better with an additional 0.2 inches of liquid equivalence.
Temperatures remained in the upper teens and 20s F throughout most of the week near treeline, while sustained wind speeds were mostly in the 30-40 mph range, with gusts in the upper 40s to low 50s mph range. By climatological standards, the windiest periods were about 10-25 mph greater than average for the dates.
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The last week's high wind weather pattern.
The tools know the way in RMNP.
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The Weather Forecast- Dec. 9th through Dec. 16th, 2010.
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The Upcoming Week
A winter storm system will track across RMNP from the northwest over the weekend.
The position and strength of the jet stream will provide favorable lift for moderate to heavy snowfall during the overnight hours on Friday 12/10 and into Saturday morning (12/11).
Orographically forced lighter snows will continue later on Saturday and into Sunday, under moist and unstable northwesterly flow.
Current numerical model guidance indicates the potential for 6-10 inches of new snow. This type of storm track pattern has historically been favorable for greater-than-predicted snowfall totals in the northern mountains of CO.
Winds above treeline are forecast to be from the northwest in the 40-50 mph range during the storm period. These speeds combined with moderate to heavy snowfall rates and potentially healthy new snow loads will quickly produce sensitive new slab.
The new snow is also expected to fall at colder temperatures (10-20 F near treeline), which may also initially create bonding issues with the older snow surface.
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(Above) Pete Lardy leaving the ice onto overhanging terrain at a new crag in RMNP, CO.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
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The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
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The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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