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Colorado Spring Weather Forecast
 

The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado.  Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer,  Dan "the weather man" Gottas.

april 15 weather forecast

Thursday, April 15th, 2010

 

Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
 

Prime spring weather settled over the mountains of RMNP over the past week.

 

The Week in Review

 

Aside from a cold day of snow (2-3” accumulations up high) and wind (westerly gusts from 50 – 70 mph) on 4/13, weather conditions have been warm and relatively calm.

Several freeze thaw temperature cycles have continued to occur near treeline, allowing the existing snowpack to settle (e.g., 12” of settlement occurred at Bear Lake) and water ice to form at higher altitudes. 

The consolidation process is well under way on snowy alpine aspects exposed to the sun.  However, for times when the duration and magnitude of overnight freezes were minimal or absent, wet slab instability was a risk during the peak solar hours of the following day.

The climatological peak in the snowpack water content typically occurs in the subalpine and alpine regions around the end of April.  To date, the snowpack at Bear Lake is about 67% of the average annual peak. 

In comparison, the west side of the Park, near the Never Summer, is about 70% of the average peak, and lower Wild Basin is about 115% of its annual max (owing to some well positioned easterly upslope events).

A look at the current snowpack water content across the higher elevations of the entire western US reveals the classic El-Nino precipitation signature: wet conditions across the southwest and dry conditions across the northern Rockies.

And although it's unrelated to the weather, Eli adds that it's been a great couple of weeks of climbing at Lumpy Ridge, with a number of first ascents completed. 

More importantly, the ticks are mad this month.

Most days at Lumpy these last few weeks, I've been coming home with between 6 and 10 ticks that are found in the ensuing hours- beware the beasties!

 

colorado weather forecast
Click on weather chart  or photos to enlarge.

rock climbing colorado

Matt Kaufman pinching crystals on the FA of 'Banana' (5.9) on the Nuggets, Lumpy Ridge, CO. 
 
backcountry skiing colorado
Dave Ryan ski-skating across Emerald Lake on a Friday Ski Outing up Flattop Mountain and down the Corral Couloir and Tyndall Gorge of RMNP on April 9th, 2010.

 

The Upcoming  Month

 

With the warming spring atmosphere comes an increase in moisture capacity and a decrease in thermodynamic stability owing to the strong heating of the lower atmosphere.  These aspects combined can produce strong convective responses, even under the weakest of forcing conditions.

Typically during the months of April, May, and June, the passage of weather disturbances embedded in the mean westerly flow provide the forcing needed to spark these convective precipitation events.  

In addition, these systems are accompanied by cold air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which increases the convective instability even more.

The mountain valley circulation also provides a forcing mechanism for convection, as warm daytime air rises up slope and converges with other rising air streams along other terrain aspects.

With weak El-Nino conditions still persisting across the tropical Pacific, the southern storm track that was so prevalent during this past winter season will remain active for the remainder of the month of April. 

Storm energy, both weak and strong, is forecast to track close enough to RMNP to produce unsettled and wetter than average conditions during this period.


weather forecast colorado

Precipitation forecast for spring, 2010.


Detailed 7-Day Forecast

 

NWS Forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak 

  

The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.  These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time.  In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
 
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
 
Weather Observations and Forecasts
 

The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information.  Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts

 



 

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