Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast

The weather in RMNP over the past week was mostly characterized by spring conditions, with a couple of wintry days sandwiched in the middle.

Week in Review

The strong winter storm system that developed over the southwestern US on 4/8 ejected northeast across the Park on 4/10.  A burst of snow with the frontal passage and post-frontal orographic snows produced a total of 0.5 inches of new snow water equivalent at Bear Lake.  

Strong northwesterly wind gusts behind the front in excess of 50 mph above treeline formed new winter-like slab.  The storm system also brought a 24-hour period of deep freeze in the 5-15 F range at altitudes near treeline.

Melt-freeze cycles occurred over the three days before and following the recent winter storm system.  These spring cycles are acting to settle and stabilize the snowpack on southern and western aspects, where solar heating is maximized during the day.  Alpine ice formations dependent on these cycles, are also worthy of a watchful eye.

The Upcoming Week

Three notable rounds of new precipitation are in the forecast over the next week.

The first will occur overnight on 4/13-14.  A convective response to a passing wave in the westerlies is forecast to efficiently produce up to 10 inches of new snow across the higher elevations of the eastern portion of the Park.  As most of this will fall through a relatively mild airmass, snow levels and densities will be on the high side.

This system will move over the high plains on Thursday 4/14.  During this time, stable and subsiding northwesterly flow will crank up the winds across the higher terrain east of the Divide, but should subside on Friday.

Moist and unstable westerly flow will develop over CO next week.  With this, frequent surges of energy will produce periods of new snow across the higher elevations of the Park. 

The warming lower atmosphere (associated with the spring season) will allow convective responses to occur with the passage of each system, particularly when phased with the afternoon and early evening hours. 

These conditions can produce highly variable precipitation intensities and distributions across very short distances.  Total accumulated precipitation during this time has the potential to well exceed an inch of liquid equivalent.

The active, moist spring weather pattern is advertised in the longer range forecast models to stick around into the flowing week (4/24-30).  Spring time in the Rockies has arrived

Detailed 7-Day Forecast

NWS Forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak

The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.

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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links

Weather Observations and Forecasts

The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts