The weekly weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado; researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer: Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Thursday August 7, 2008
The Week in Review
After the warmest days of the season peaked near 70 F at 11,500 ft last Thursday through Saturday, the atmosphere has since cooled, moistened, and destabilized. Increased cloudiness and rain-cooled air, associated with the influx of subtropical moisture from the southwestern US, have consistently lowered the minimum and maximum temperatures each day since Sunday.
The trend in atmospheric water vapor content has been steadily bullish since Sunday, with the highest values of the season occurring over the last couple of days. With this, the potential energy available for afternoon thunderstorm development and intensity increased, as did the potential for soaking rains.
Some of the biggest ‘rainers’ of the season occurred the last couple of days along the Front Range and neighboring eastern plains. During this time, several lower foothill locations received 1 – 2 inches or rain, while higher elevation east-side gauges measured 0.5 – 1.5 inches. In addition, measureable rainfall has been recorded in Estes Park each day since Sunday, with the most intense storms forming on Sunday and Wednesday over the surrounding higher terrain.
The Upcoming Weekend
Friday will be another active day, as an upper-atmospheric disturbance combined with daytime heating force the existing deep moisture to rise. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to initiate around noon, and widespread thunderstorms with soaking rains are probable. Storm motion will be from the west.
Beginning Saturday, a drying trend will ensue for the remainder of the week. The weekend will represent transition days, before the existing moist, subtropical airmass becomes completely replaced by a dry, mid-latitude airmass on Monday.
On Saturday, the atmosphere will begin to dry out under northwesterly flow on the west side of the upper-atmospheric disturbance. The heavy-rain risk of recent days will be dramatically reduced, and thunderstorm initiation and coverage will be become more isolated in the afternoon. Storm motion (if and where they do develop) will be from the northwest.
On Sunday, another weak disturbance is forecast to move through the area, which, if it verifies, will act to increase the shower and thunderstorm coverage compared to Saturday. Storm motion will be westerly.
The temperature and wind forecast for the high peaks is as follows:
A drier weather pattern will characterize the remainder of the week, as dry, mid-latitude air continues to feed in from the west. This will provide favorable weather conditions for attempting more committing climbing routes in the high peaks. Subtropical moisture is forecast to surge northward into Utah by next Thursday, possibly representing a precursor for the next unsettled period of weather for CO shortly thereafter.
Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.
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