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Wednesday,
August 12th,
2009
Rocky
Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
Mostly
sunny, warm, and storm-free weather conditions once
again graced the high country of RMNP over most of the past week.
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The Week in Review
From
a climatological perspective, the weather conditions
that typically occur during the end of June and beginning of August
have traded
places in time this year.
But, as is
often the case in the wacky world of weather, climate is what we come
to expect
and weather is what we get!
Regardless,
the recent stable weather around these parts is
about as good as it gets for alpine climbing this time of the year. During
the months of July and August, the
monsoon has been intermittent and weak at best, thereby limiting both
the
intensity and frequency of mountain thunderstorms.
Some
thunderstorm activity did develop last Thu. and Fri. (8/7
– 8/8).
These were forced by
the
confluence of a mid-latitude trough of low pressure and weak monsoonal
moisture.
Over
the past couple of weeks, the isolated thunderstorms that
did form produced frozen precipitation down to 11-12 kft. Much
of this fell in the form of graupel, as
is common over the high mountains during the spring and summer months.
Because
of the dense nature of these particles and with the
aid of strong thunderstorm downdrafts, graupel can fall, accumulate,
and slowly
melt even at temperatures near or even above freezing.
The
image of the new snow high up in the Longs-Meeker Cirque
(in Eli’s Aug. 7th
conditions report) is an example of these
conditions, where nearby radar data in Estes Park measured the freezing
level
up near 13 kft.
These conditions were
also observed firsthand this past weekend in the nearby Indian
Peaks.
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Andrew Nunnally finishing the first pitch of the Whales's Tail in
Eldorado Canyon, Colorado on a ClimbingLife Guides Friday Techniques Clinic in this home of traditional rock climbing.
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The
Upcoming Week
The
weather pattern is forecast to become more unsettled
over the next few days.
Subtropical
moisture will increase over the state from the
south on Thu. and Fri.
While the central
and southern mountains will be the main recipients of the increased
afternoon
storm activity, enough moisture will be transported northward over RMNP
to
produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Another
approaching trough of low pressure will force more
afternoon showers and storms over the weekend, particularly on Sat.
Drier
air is forecast to move back into region
sometime on Sun., and will persist through the beginning of next week. This
will once again reduce the coverage and
intensity of afternoon showers and storms.
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Click on image to enlarge.
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Detailed
7-Day
Forecast
The
link above will take you to the National Weather Service
forecast for the
12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.
These
forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and
are
updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local
time.
In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for
other
locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the
terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself
Weather Forecast
Links
The
link above provides a list
of web links to various sites
containing a variety of meteorological data and information.
Collectively,
these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather
conditions, as
well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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