Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
 

Mostly dry and stable weather occurred in the mountains of RMNP over the past week.

The Week in Review

The last weather disturbance, in a series of moist and unstable systems tracking out of Canada, passed over the area last Fri.  This forced a period of organized showers and thunderstorms over the area on late Fri afternoon, with about 0.25 inches of rain falling over the Estes Valley.

Very dry and stable conditions behind this system moved into the region over the weekend.  Storm-free skies during this time provided safe weather conditions for attempting longer, committing alpine adventures.

As high pressure built over NM on Sun/Mon, a weak monsoon circulation pattern developed.  However, the southern moisture tap was relatively dry, which limited the afternoon convective activity to a few isolated storms over the mountains.

The Upcoming Week

A trough of low pressure off the west coast will move over the inter-mountain west on Thursday and Friday.

The lift associated with this system combined with weak subtropical moisture will produce unsettled weather (showers and t-storms) over the mountains on Wed. night through Thu.

As this system ejects northeastward into ID, MT, and Canada on Fri., very dry air will move over the mountains of CO. 

This will once again produce stable, storm-free skies over the Park through the weekend – perfect summer weather conditions for committing and exposed alpine routes.

The only fly in the ointment will be the winds, as they are forecast to pick up on Fri. from the southwest.  However, the large-scale pressure gradient is forecast to slacken during the day on Sat., and the wind-speed trends will follow.

The current medium-range forecast calls for westerly flow over the northern mountains through most of next week.  This would keep the atmosphere over RMNP dry, stable, and storm free.

Bert Honea nearing the end of the crux pitch on "Obviously Four Believers" III 5.11b- Spearhead.

The NWS numerical forecast for the mountains of RMNP over the upcoming weekend is as follows:

Detailed 7-Day Forecast

NWS Forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak 

The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.  These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time.  In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.

Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links

Weather Observations and Forecasts

The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information.  Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts