The weekly weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado; researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer: Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Thursday July 31, 2008
The Week in Review
The dog days of summer are barking loud and clear along the Front Range of Colorado and in the mountains of RMNP. Alpine temperatures have reached maximum daytime reading in the 60’s F over the past week, with maximums near 70 F over the last couple of days near 11,500 feet. In addition, dry sinking air moved into the region on Wednesday, which has since provided plentiful sun bathing by suppressing convection, clouds, and thunderstorms.
Prior to Wednesday, the presence of deep subtropical moisture fueled daily cycles of showers and thunderstorms forced mostly by afternoon heating. The first storms of the day typically formed by noon, and locally heavy downpours of rain were not uncommon. Some additional upper atmospheric forcing on Monday afternoon helped to produce some of the biggest rainers of the week, with 0.7 inches of precipitation measured over the higher terrain (12,000 ft) of the Indian Peaks just south of RMNP.
 The Upcoming Weekend
The hottest temperatures of the season thus far are forecast to occur on Friday and Saturday. On Friday, convection will continue to be suppressed for the most part. However, moisture is once again on the gradual increase, which may allow a few isolated storms to form late in the afternoon.
The most recent anticyclone (high pressure) to build across the state will begin to shift eastward early Saturday. With this, southwesterly flow will develop near and above mountain top, and will begin to transport subtropical moisture back into the region from the southwestern US.
On Saturday, deep convection is forecast to once again be suppressed for most of the day, but late afternoon showers and storms are probable with increasing moisture (read transitional day). By Sunday, widespread showers and storms are forecast to return to the area, as a deeper layer of atmosphere juices up. Early thunderstorm initiation (by noon) on Sunday is probable. The temperature and wind forecast for the high peaks is as follows:
For the remainder of the week, subtropical moisture and daytime heating will continue to produce early afternoon shower and thunderstorm cycles. With this moist airmass, locally heavy rain and hail are possible with the thunderstorms. In addition, a cool down is expected by mid week, with perhaps some drying by mid to late week.
Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.
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